内阁资政李光耀于10月27日在华盛顿“美国—亚细安商业理事会”庆祝成立25周年晚宴演讲全文：
感谢你们今晚给我的荣誉。小国对国际趋势没有什么影响力。新加坡向来接受世界的现状。我们对世界进行冷静的分析，利用不期而遇的机会或者避免受到损害。今晚，我希望同大家分享我对国际重大局势的看法。
我经历了好几个具历史性的时代：作为英国殖民地；粉碎西方殖民帝国的日本军事征服和占领；然后是美国／西欧和苏联集团的冷战。最终，苏联帝国在1992年解体。现在，世界正置身另一次重大的转变。
G-20取代G-8
当奥巴马总统于匹兹堡G-20峰会宣布G-20将取代G-8时，他默认了后二战世界秩序已经结束。美国总统对已经改变了的世界采取了实际的看法，虽然在接下来的20到30年，美国仍将是唯一的超级强国。
美国和她的欧洲盟友在二次世界大战后塑造了世界秩序。
联合国机制和布雷顿森林（Bretton Woods）体制还是重要的。但目前的体制已经明显不能确保国际稳定。美国已经发出信号，正在崛起的大国将被包括在内，以便管理世界秩序。
没有人可以预测G-20将如何演变。它并不预示一个势均力敌的多极世界。欧洲这个大经济体已经不再扮演全球战略角色。印度和巴西在各自的区域具备影响力。俄罗斯是个主要核子强国，拥有大量的石油和天然气并控制跨越东欧和西欧的天然气管。中国在20年后将具备全球重要性和影响力。
我们正面对一个改变了的世界秩序。
中美关系是合作也是竞争的
全球金融危机加快了这个改变。自2001年便是世界贸易组织成员的中国，将充分发挥其经济潜能，在20到30年内成为强国。
中国面对巨大的国内问题。没有人比中国领导人更了解问题的严重性。但他们通过务实的方法应对了问题。中国领导层并不否认他们的制度的弱点和缺陷，包括贪污猖獗和乡村地区越来越频繁的群体示威事件，共产党官员在这些地方和发展商勾结，在没有足够赔偿的情况下把农民逐出土地。北京采取了灵活的反应，用软或硬或软硬兼施的手法，安然地渡过了可以摧毁一个僵硬体制的冲击。中国的发展还有难以预料之处，但她所设定的方向将在接下来的20年带来高增长率。高增长将带来重大的社会和政治变化。中国目前的政治结构将面对巨大的压力。管理一个超过70％人口住在城市地区，可以通过黑莓（Blackberries)、手机和互联网取得全球信息的国家，需要重组政治结构和改变对这个大国的治理。
中国的转变始于总统尼克逊和国务卿基辛格在1972年1月访问北京，同当时看来无法和解的死敌会谈。他们改变了历史。不久后，中国公开地同苏联决裂。邓小平在1978年12月宣布他的对外开放政策，这项政策现在正让中国恢复她旧有的环球地位。随后的美国总统把同中国的关系推向美国政策的核心。期间有一些犹豫不决，中国有时候被称为“战略伙伴”，有时候则是“潜在对手”。但美国政策却维持稳定以增加多边贸易、投资和共同繁荣。此外，同其他东亚强国更密切的关系也增加了安全。
和美国及苏联冷战期间的关系不同，美国和大力拥抱市场经济的中国之间，没有强烈和不能化解的意识形态矛盾。双方都希望有稳定的关系和一个可以增加贸易及投资的国际体制。
中美关系是合作也是竞争的。双方的竞争是无可避免的，但冲突却不是。中国需要国内稳定和国外和平，才能发展其经济。她需要所有大经济体的市场、投资和科技。比如，中国已经不再重提日本皇军从1931到1945年于中国占领区干下的暴行。相反的，国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝向日本伸出了友谊和合作之手，并承诺世世代代都会如此。
他们的结论是，他们最好的战略是建立强大和繁荣的未来，用他们大量和越来越具技术和教育的工人，在销售和建筑方面把其他国家都比下去。他们会避免任何会恶化同美国的关系的行动。挑战像美国这样更强大、在科技上更优越的强国，会让他们的“和平崛起”夭折。
现代化的解放军展示力量
因此，北京在庆祝中共建国60周年的庆典上展示高科技的国产武器，让人感到意外。它们包括：弹道导弹系统、新的J-10战斗机、空中加油飞机、DH-10对陆攻击巡航导弹、和KJ-2000空中早期预警及控制系统。
美国、日本、印度和中国的所有邻国，肯定注意到这次的展示。当然，像中国这么大的国家必须让她的军事力量赶上经济成长。中国人民解放军远远落后于美国武装部队。然而，中国取得这些科技能力的步伐，意味着一个现代化、高科技的解放军将在20到30年后出现。一个拥有航空母舰的蓝海舰队，不可能只是在台湾和大陆出现冲突时，用来阻止外国力量的干预。
越南、菲律宾、马来西亚和文莱都宣称对西沙和南沙群岛的小岛和沙洲拥有主权。根据中国的地图，这些岛屿和大部分的南中国海都属于中国。中国和一些亚细安国家也有关于捕鱼海域的争执。中国在一些岛屿捕鱼据点设置了建筑并有海岸警卫船只巡逻。以后，这些小巡逻艇的背后将会有蓝海舰队。
过去200年，国际体制一直由西方主导。同其他崛起的国家不同，中国要做中国并被接受为中国，不是西方的荣誉会员。
东亚和亚细安
中国的崛起是东亚现代化成长故事的一部分。这是从日本1868年的明治维新开始。在中国，它始于1978年12月邓小平的对外开放政策。印度在1991年对世界开放。中国和印度可以，也会在科学和科技上赶上西方。她们会让亚洲恢复到欧洲殖民主义席卷她们之前的领导地位。世界秩序将会重新平衡。
成长造成中国、日本、韩国、印度、亚细安和澳洲之间日益复杂的战略关系。每一个国家都会尝试找到最具安全、稳定和影响力的位置。亚细安的共识是美国在东亚依然是不可取代的。但她不能再独自处理新的复杂局面来维持稳定。因此，必须寻找一些新的架构，如一个在东亚的共同体的概念。
它有一些不同的呈现方式：亚太经济合作会议、亚细安+3、东亚峰会、澳洲总理陆克文所提出的亚太共同体、和日本首相鸠山由纪夫最近提出的定义模糊的东亚共同体。
对寻找一个新架构来说，共同体是个太难以界定的名称。但造成这些提议的根本战略考量却是真实的。
要继续留在东亚经济和政治演变的中心，亚细安必须更紧密的整合，并把这当成当前要务。不然，她将会被边缘化。快速地达成《亚细安宪章》是个好的开始。现在的任务是必须把宪章付诸实行。
亚细安缺乏战略分量。因此，所有亚细安国家都欢迎国务卿希拉莉重新开启同东南亚关系的决定。美国已经决定加入亚细安的《友好合作条约》。今年11月，奥巴马总统将同亚细安的所有10位领袖于新加坡举行峰会。美国维持与亚细安沟通的一贯政策，将增加稳定。
用封闭，或更糟糕地用种族的方式，来定义东亚对本区域将是个严重的错误。在建设任何新的东亚架构时，美国必须是重要的一部分。
中国还没有准备好或者愿意在处理国际体制方面承担同样的责任。美国依然是世界最大的经济体和“最后的市场”。美元将继续是首要的国际储备货币，虽然欧元、中国人民币、日元和其他货币也最终会成为储备货币。重新平衡国际储蓄和消费，特别是中国的情况，需要时间。但这必须出现，也会出现。
最终，不管面对什么挑战，美国的核心利益让她必须在太平洋维持占优势的强国地位。放弃这个地位将削弱美国在整个世界的角色。
叶琦保译
李光耀演讲原文：
SPEECH BY MR LEE KUAN YEW, MINISTER MENTOR, AT US-ASEAN BUSINESS COUNCIL'S 25TH ANNIVERSARY GALA DINNER, 27 OCTOBER 2009, 3:48 PM AT WASHINGTON, DC
Senator Jim Webb
Chairman, Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations,
Senator Christopher “Kit” Bond,
Members of the House of Representatives,
Under Secretary of State Robert Hormats,
Assistant Secretaries,
The Honorable Henry Kissinger,
The Honorable George Shultz,
The Honorable William Cohen,
Mr George David,
Mr Alexander Feldman,
Distinguished guests,
Ladies and gentlemen,
Thank you for honouring me this evening. Small countries have little influence on international trends. Singapore has always taken the world as it is. We analyse the world clinically, take advantage of opportunities that come our way or get out of harm's way. This evening, I hope to share with you some of my views on some major international trends.
2 I have lived through several historic eras: as a British colony; then, a Japanese military conquest and occupation that shattered Western colonial empires. Then, the Cold War between the US/western Europe and the Soviet Bloc. Finally, in 1992, the dissolution of the Soviet empire. And the world is now in the midst of another momentous transformation.
G-20
3 When President Barack Obama announced at the Pittsburgh G-20 Summit that G-20 would replace G-8, he implicitly acknowledged the end of the post-World War II world order. An American President has taken a realistic view of the changed world, although for the next two to three decades, America will remain the sole superpower.
4 America and her European allies shaped the world order after World War II.
5 The UN system and Bretton Woods institutions will still be important. But for some time, it has been clear that the present system can no longer ensure international stability. America has now signalled that emerging major powers will be included to manage the world order.
6 No one can predict how the G-20 will evolve. It does not herald a multi-polar world with parity between the different poles. Europe, a large economy, is no longer a global strategic actor. India and Brazil have influence in their own regions. Russia is a major nuclear power with vast quantities of oil and gas and control of gas pipes across Eastern and Western Europe, and China will have global heft and influence in two decades.
7 A changed world order is upon us.
China
8 The global financial crisis has hastened this change. As a member of WTO from 2001, China will maximise its economic potential and become a powerhouse within two to three decades.
9 It faces enormous domestic problems. No one knows their seriousness better than China's own leaders. But in a pragmatic way, they have coped with their problems. This leadership is not in denial of the weaknesses and flaws in their system: among them, widespread corruption and increasing numbers of mass protests in rural areas where Communist Party officials collude with property developers to evict farmers from their land without adequate compensation. Beijing’s response has been flexible, using the carrot or stick, or both. It has survived traumas that would have cracked a rigid system. While there are imponderables in its development, the course it has set out on will result in high growth rates for the next two decades. High growth will bring major social and political changes. China’s present political structures will come under acute stress. Governing a people with over 70% living in urban areas with access to worldwide information through “Blackberries”, cell-phones and the Internet will require a restructuring of their political structures and governance of this huge nation.
10 China’s transformation began when President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger visited Beijing in January 1972 to talk to a then-seemingly implacable enemy. They changed the course of history. Soon afterwards, China openly broke off from the Soviet Union. In December 1978, Deng Xiaoping announced his open-door policy that is now restoring China to its former global status. Successive American Presidents have moved relations with China closer towards the centre of US policies. There was vacillation, sometimes China was called a ‘strategic partner’, at other times a ‘potential adversary’. But US policy kept a steady course to increase multilateral trade, investments and mutual prosperity. Furthermore, closer ties with other East Asian powers are enhancing security.
11 Unlike US-Soviet relations during the Cold War, there is no bitter, irreconcilable ideological conflict between the US and a China that has enthusiastically embraced the market. Both countries want stability in their relations and an international system that increases trade and investments.
12 Sino-US relations are both cooperative and competitive. Competition between them is inevitable, but conflict is not. For China to grow its economy, it needs stability at home and peace abroad. It seeks access to the markets, investments and technology of all major economies. For instance, China has stopped resurrecting grievances over atrocities committed by the Imperial Japanese Army in occupied China from 1931 to 1945. Instead, President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have extended a hand in friendship and co-operation to Japan and promised it for generations.
13 They have concluded that their best strategy is to build a strong and prosperous future and use their huge and increasingly highly-skilled and educated workers to out-sell and out-build all others. They will avoid any action that will sour up relations with the US. To challenge a stronger and technologically superior power like the US will abort their ‘peaceful rise’.
A modernised PLA on parade
14 So it was a surprise that on the 60th Anniversary of China’s National Day on 1st October 2009, Beijing paraded high-tech China-made weapons: ballistic missile systems, a new fighter aircraft J-10, airborne refuelling tankers, DH-10 land attack cruise missiles, KJ-2000 airborne early warning and control systems.
15 The US, Japan, India and all of China’s neighbours must have taken notice of this display. Of course, a country the size of China must have its armed forces keep abreast with its economic growth. The PLA is way behind the US Armed Services. However, the pace at which China has achieved these technological capabilities will mean a modern high-tech PLA in another two to three decades. A blue-water fleet with aircraft carriers cannot just be to deter foreign intervention in a conflict between Taiwan and the Mainland.
16 Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all have claims on the islets and sand banks in the Paracels and Spratlys. Chinese maps show these islets and most of the South China Sea as under Chinese ownership. There have also been disputes over fishing grounds between China and various ASEAN countries. The Chinese have built on several islets fishing outposts, and coastguard vessels patrol them. Later, behind these small patrol craft will be a blue-water fleet.
17 For the last 200 years, the international system has been dominated by the West. Unlike other emergent countries, China wants to be China and accepted as such, not as an honorary member of the West.
East Asia and ASEAN
18 China's rise is one facet of East Asia’s modernisation growth story. It began with Japan and the Meiji Revolution in 1868. In China, it began in December 1978 with the open-door policy of Deng Xiaoping. India opened up to the world in 1991. China and India can and will catch up with the West in science and technology. They will restore Asia to its leading position before European colonialism enveloped them. The world order will be re-balanced.
19 Growth has created growing strategic complexity between China, Japan, South Korea, India, ASEAN and Australia. Each will try to position itself to achieve maximum security, stability and influence. The consensus in ASEAN is that the US remains irreplaceable in East Asia. But it can no longer be alone and manage the new complexities to maintain stability. Hence, the search for some new architecture, such as the concept of a community in East Asia.
20 It has several manifestations: APEC, ASEAN+3, the East Asia Summit, Australia’s Prime Minister Rudd’s notion of an Asia Pacific community and, recently, Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama's vaguely-defined East Asian Community.
21 'Community' is too amorphous a term to describe the search for a new architecture. But the underlying strategic concerns that led to these proposals are real.
22 To remain at the centre of East Asia’s economic and political evolution, ASEAN must integrate more closely and with urgency. Otherwise, it will be marginalised. A good start has been made with the speedy conclusion of the ASEAN Charter. Now the Charter must be implemented.
23 ASEAN lacks strategic weight. Hence, all ASEAN countries welcomed the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s decision to re-engage Southeast Asia. America has decided to accede to ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. This November, President Obama will hold a Summit with all 10 ASEAN Leaders in Singapore. A consistent American policy of keeping ASEAN engaged will add to stability.
24 It would be a serious mistake for the region to define East Asia in closed or, worse, in racial terms. In building any new East Asian architecture, the US must be an important part of it.
25 China is not ready or willing to assume equal responsibility for managing the international system. The US is still the world’s largest economy and market of last resort. The US dollar will remain as the premier international reserve currency, although the Euro, China’s RMB, Japan’s Yen and others will also eventually become reserve currencies. But it will take time to rebalance global savings and global consumption, especially China’s. But it must happen and will happen.
26 In the end, whatever the challenges, US core interest requires that it remains the superior power on the Pacific. To give up this position would diminish America’s role throughout the world.
27 Ladies and gentlemen, I am now happy to take your questions.
